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the most interesting stats.

Patrick

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https://rapecrisis.org.uk/statistics.php

This is where I got the 85,000 women and 12,000 men raped, "every year", and the "15% report their rape to the police".
They say they got it "from An Overview of Sexual Offending in England and Wales, the first ever joint official statistics bulletin on sexual violence released by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Home Office in January 2013."

Their interpretation is most likely to be exaggerated in one direction only - i.e. they will want to make out that more women are raped, and more of those women report it to the police, than they actually do.

But this is where I add in the latest "Statista" figure on rapes reported to the police... 53,970
and we can safely assume that at least half of those were made by people who were not raped.
 

Patrick

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For those interested - (@JohnH ?) the following is my exchange with the ONS...

(long read.) - I have now had a response to this original letter:-


Subject: statistics uncollected - and lied about.



Dear Sirs,

I am aware that there is a, still current, politically sponsored agenda that makes my plea to be heard unlikely to receive a positive response, and yet I have to ask you this for a reasons of seeking fairness and the restoration of a justice system working to core principles and not any political agenda.

Despite many battles to try and provide a more solid statistical base with which to argue for new approaches or changes in direction - the national Crime Survey remains one of the few sources using a large enough sample to be meaningful, that is accepted across some of the political divides, on gender and other demographic issues.

Rape Crisis quote, "An Overview of Sexual Offending in England and Wales, the first ever joint official statistics bulletin on sexual violence released by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Home Office in January 2013." as giving us the widely accepted notion that somewhere in the region of 85,000 women are raped each year - and that the percentage reporting that to the police may have reached as high as 17% this last year ( having generally been lower in previous years ).

We do not know the percentage of men who report their rape to the police despite there being a figure from the survey of some 12,000 male victims. My own experience working with male victims of rape/sexual assault and/or domestic violence is that their rate of reporting is likely to remain in the 3% to 5% range, much lower than for women.

Another figure that appears not to be collected or reported - is the number of rapes reported to police stations that are "historic", as in from more than one year prior to the report being made.

All these figures would be very useful in bearing down on a troublesome yet important statistic that I wish I could see you working on.

That figure is: the number of reports of rape made to police that are made by people who were not in fact raped.
(this is a slightly different figure from "those proven to be making false rape reports".)

Using mainly your figures I come up with a starting point for a serious reassessment.
The Statista web site (see attached screenshot) reports that the latest surge in rape reports means that we have seen another massive jump from 41,186 last year to 53,977 this year. I believe the first of those figures concurs with your own published police records.

Your statistics suggest that about 15,000 of the 85,000 genuine female rape victims reported their rape to the police - though when they did this is not clear. Some may have been historical rape, recorded last year, or before, and some may have been historical but which they have just reported.

Either way -
allowing for statistical error, and allowing generously for male rape reports to have been counted in the 53,977 - probably fewer than 450 - as well as some historic cases (as many as 10,000?) that are somehow not featured as part of the survey...
we have a possible figure of 20,000 - 25,000 genuine rapes reported to the police.
As little as 5 years ago when the total reports were 16,000, no one questioned this mismatch because the estimates could fully account for the variations people saw and experienced.

Now, however, we are left with the strong probability, indeed statistical likelihood - that more wrongful reports of rape were made to police than genuine ones.

The first serious task therefore is to put in place measures that can ensure published figures reflect how many historic and male victim cases are recorded annually (a police statistics matter) and then questions in the annual survey that tell us how many of those 12,000 men say they reported it to the police - and how many of the 15,000 women have reported it prior to this year etc.

Without this, the rape statistics are set to become even more meaningless as the reality behind why there are so few convictions becomes apparent to all those studying such things. The Feminist agenda appears to imply that we need to destroy the jury system for rape cases because too many of them are finding victims of false allegations not guilty...
(see what I did there? - yes, victims of false allegations are victims)

Then we need to look at preventing further false ideas such as those put forward in the Secret Barrister's book - (again attached) that say that "false accusations are rare because there are so few prosecutions for perverting the course of justice..." (20 last year I believe)
which is like saying people breaking the speeding laws by doing 80mph on motorways are incredibly rare because there are so few prosecutions for that.

I put it to you that there were almost certainly at least 20,000 liars who tried to pervert the course of justice last year by falsely accusing men (and a few women) of sexual assault/rape, and for a range of well understood reasons. - All of which is supported by the experience of groups online approached by the traumatised victims of such accusations and often the witch-hunts - graffiti on their doors, kids driven out of school, lost careers, broken marriages and suicides - that result.

This is a serious level of serious crime about which discussion is being avoided and statistics are going unmeasured, I would suggest deliberately, because there has been a consistent agenda for a number of years, to "raise the number of convictions for rape", which has resulted in many perverse effects, including the destruction of the core principle of British justice, "innocent until proven guilty".

I put it to you that, whilst we all have a role to play in trying to ensure that justice is prevented from being subjected to such blatant political agendas and shameful attacks on its core principles, the National statistics office and the crime survey have a solemn duty to provide the most useful body of figures with regard to establishing the trends, successes and failures of the system.

I look forward to your debate on any such details as I have provided and trust that you have some system to ensure that measures are taken to help prevent those of us whose lives have been done down from suffering further in the silence of mismanaged crime figures and actions.
Best Wishes


To which I received this:-

On Fri, 16 Nov 2018 at 05:54, CrimeStatistics <CrimeStatistics@ons.gov.uk> wrote:
Dear Patrick,

Thank you for your email, which has been passed on to us by Kantar Public.

We have a range of statistics which I believe provide useful information in relation to the issues you have raised. I would first like to mention that the Overview of Sexual Offending publication that you referred to from 2013 is currently being updated, and is due for publication on 13th December.

To reply specifically on your points, the crime survey does collect information on whether victims of rape or assault by penetration reported this to the police. This information is not collected in the survey every year, as it is part of a rotating module that is only included in the survey once every 3 years. The most recent results from this question were published in February 2018, as part of the “Sexual offences in England and Wales: year ending March 2017” article. However, we were unable to provide this information for male victims only, as the number of male victims who said they were victims of these crimes was relatively low. Therefore the sample size was too small to breakdown the survey results for male victims. However, in our upcoming publication mentioned above, we have combined 2 survey years of data in order to provide a sample size large enough to be able to provide the figures for men.

You have also mentioned historical rapes being reported to the police. We do regularly publish information on the number of non-recent (the term we use for your definition of historical) sexual offences recorded by the police, most recently in October 2018, which showed that 26% of sexual offences recorded by the police in the year ending June 2018 were non-recent. This can be found in section 11 of our latest quarterly bulletin:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingjune2018

In terms of reports of rape made to the police by people who were not in fact raped, there are 2 sources of data that are helpful here. The Home Office publish information on the number of rape offences that are cancelled. This includes cases where the police have “additional verifiable information” to show that the crime was recorded in error or did not take place. This will include allegations of rape that are later determined by the police to be false. This will be covered in our sexual offences publication in December, but has also been previously published in the Home Office transferred or cancelled crime open data tables:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-recorded-crime-open-data-tables

In addition, we also have data on rape incidents. That is incidents that are reported to the police but never go on to be recorded as crimes. We have a breakdown of rape incidents by type of incident, and the type that will be of interest to you is “credible evidence to contrary exists”. The data for the year ending March 2018 will be published in December, but you can find the data for the year ending March 2017 in the Home Office rape incidents and crime data tables:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-recorded-crime-open-data-tables

We are also able to provide a breakdown of victims of sexual offences recorded by the police by sex. We will be including updated figures in our December publication, but the latest published figures that I am able to share now show that in the year ending March 2017, male victims accounted for 12% of rapes recorded by the police (section 6 of the following article):
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/sexualoffencesinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2017

It is worth nothing that direct comparisons between the Crime Survey and police recorded crime should not be made, as the coverage of the two datasets is different. For example, almost one-third of rapes recorded by the police were against those under the age of 16, whereas the Crime Survey only collects information on rape experienced by those aged 16 and over.

The Ministry of Justice provide data on the outcomes of court cases for sexual offences, which will again be included in our December publication. This includes a breakdown of the defendants that were acquitted, i.e. the defendant was found to be innocent:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-justice-system-statistics-quarterly-december-2017

Although each of the data sources I have mentioned above are usually published separately, the publication we are currently working on for December brings them together to allow a picture of where, and why, cases drop out of the criminal justice system to be developed. This includes providing information on male victims, reporting to the police, cancelled crimes, acquittals, etc. I hope that you will find this publication of use when it is released.

Finally, I would like to highlight that the Office for National Statistics is a non-ministerial government department, and as such we do not have any political influence in the statistics we produce.

Kind regards.

Alexa Bradley.​

so my latest response is as follows:
to CrimeStatistics
Alexa Bradley.




Dear Alexa,

Thank you very much for your detailed and fulsome exposition on the matter of the statistics I sought - and also, I understand the fact that you have no political influence or control over what statistics are asked for by national government, so I do appreciate your work on this, most sincerely.

As you may imagine, it has inevitably prompted some further questions, and I feel both a little cheeky in going about discussing those as a response - but also fired up in a way that means I just have to do so.
I am particularly pleased to have some important questions answered, which I failed to find in my searching, (largely a matter of being akin to me looking for a book in someone else's extremely large library where the titles and filing system are in a 2nd language I never studied past the age of 14.)

The "non recent" cases percentage reported to the police is a jigsaw piece that plugs a hole in one argument, and the male rape figures are of particular interest, as you say that the sample in the crime survey was too small to be able to draw a conclusion. I am assuming that this is from a sample size of some 41,000 adults aged 16 - 59 - and that a rough 50% of these were male? shall we say 20,000 men in the survey sample? but I cannot be certain that is the case at all, when I look up the methodology of the survey I am directed to many more links, but none of those have led me to this overall gender breakdown...
I am struggling to tell what this "too small a sample" means in this context. i.e. is it that the small number of men who reported being raped (in the survey still assumed to have been of 20,000) were statistically too small a sample?
and yet... It seems to me that whatever this figure is should then be reported in the survey results... e.g. "0.5% of the 20,000 men asked said they had been raped..."
Saying that the sample is too small, implies to me is that the number of men in the entire survey was too small, i.e. much lower than 20,000.
Is that the case?
and if not, and it is to do with the small proportion of the 20,000 that responded... was it because it was well below the 12% who reportedly did go to the police?... and those mismatches made you question the survey validity? those police reports would presumably be 12% of 53,977* i.e. somewhere in the region of 6,400 men.
(*The Statista figure online as the most recent total of rapes reported, up from the previous year's 41,186)

One reason this quite high number of men reporting rape to the police sticks out as interesting, I hope you will agree, is that it implies, (or suggests) that some men must have lied on the survey, as in denying, or declining to speak about being raped, but then a significant number actually did go to the police. At the very least this is worth discussing in term of the survey's overall accuracy as we are safely assuming that the female reportage to the survey, year on year, shows figures consistent with the Rape Crisis org's statement that roughly 85,000 women are raped every year
and that 15% report that rape to the police... so the question becomes - why would a decent proportion of men deny being raped to a survey and then report that they had been to the police, whereas large numbers of women report rape to the survey but also state that they haven't been to the police?

is this a statistician or a psychologist's field day?!

I am very grateful to know:
The non recent rapes stands at 26% of those recorded by the police - this also gives us an interesting and high figure from police reports to June 2018 of 14,040... add the male 12% figure to that and we get 20,440...
leaving just over 32,000 adult women reporting rape, and still we have that survey based figure of 12, -14,000 of them being genuine.
So I have my refined figure!
thank you so much...
It is now a matter of very strong statistical suggestion that 16 - 18,000 of the contemporary rape reports are from non victims...
( plus, another 7,000 - the likely 50% of historic cases, based on this proportional statistic - but excluding the men - because, Hey, it is even clearer now, that no one is really interested in men as victims).
So we get much closer to the stronger statistical probability that somewhere in the region of 25,000 women lied to the police about being raped last year, out of around 47,000 female victim reports made.

So, I guess it is now for me to raise with those political entities that do have a responsibility of ensuring that out statistics are used to support and develop policy: -​

* The statistics show an appalling lack of support to men to come forward as victims, so much so that they dare not answer honestly to an anonymous survey
* The notion that "women who lie about rape are extremely rare" is a very dangerous embedded myth that needs correcting urgently, It keeps coming back via reasonable calculations to being that around half of the total reported cases are lies.
* While this does not mean that we should expect to see 25,000 cases of perverting the course of justice for lying about being raped go to prosecution, it does indicate that the figure that last year stood at around 20 such prosecutions is ridiculously low - considering the conviction rate is proportionately extremely high. (and this is excluding the much higher numbers we should be talking if we include all forms of sexual assault)
* What it does indicate is that statistical matters should be used to counter embedded cultural myths so that the idea of "believe all women and distrust all men" is roundly kicked into the waste pit of justice-perverting ideas.
* This also goes some way to explaining why - despite a decade long politically motivated attempt to get all police to believe all women who report rape, and help them get their CICA claims in to bind them to the police process - most cases are dropped without charge, and even when the police do hide evidence well enough to get cases into a courtroom, more and more juries see the lies fairly quickly, despite having been fed this well established rape myth.

So thank you again for helping to reveal the true extent of the lies that are being fed to, and digested by, the UK public - when we do finally get some return to balanced justice in this arena I look forward to government choosing to emphasise relevant and consistent statistical research to achieve better steering for justice matters, and the thriving of your department in this endeavour.

Best Wishes
 
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